Keon Ellis’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Keon Ellis was 0.9 points under at home and 4.6 points under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 5.8 and 3.3, a difference of 2.5. Both division games were away.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.9
away
−4.6
-50
A +3.6 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
plain
5.8
3.3
05
A +2.5 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs CHA | L | 7 | 7.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 6 | 9.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs IND | L | 9 | 6.8 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ BOS | L | 2 | 7.0 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs DET | L | 6 | 6.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @IND | W | 0 | 7.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ NYK | L | 5 | 7.8 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsCHA | W | 1 | 6.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 13%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.