Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was 1.6 points over at home and 1.8 points over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 6.0 and 5.7, a difference of 0.3. Expected was 0.6 points higher at home than away.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+1.6
away
+1.8
05
A −0.2 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
6.0
5.7
510
A +0.3 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ NYK | W | 10 | 4.1 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs CLE | W | 3 | 4.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs MIL | W | 12 | 4.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs DET | L | 7 | 3.2 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ IND | W | 4 | 3.7 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsNYK | W | 5 | 4.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ CHA | W | 3 | 3.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 3 | 5.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 0.8 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 8%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.