Julian Champagnie’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Julian Champagnie was 1.7 points over at home and 0.9 points over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 10.0 and 9.0, a difference of 1.0. Both back-to-backs were away. All 5 games with a day off or more were at home.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+1.7
away
+0.9
010
A +0.8 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
10.0
9.0
01020
A +1.0 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs OKC | L | 8 | 7.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs HOU | L | 6 | 6.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 12 | 7.9 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs SAC | W | 26 | 11.5 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ UTA | W | 6 | 8.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 12 | 6.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsUTA | W | 8 | 8.9 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 0 | 8.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 22%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.