Jeremiah Fears’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Jeremiah Fears was 4.6 points under at home and 14.4 points under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 16.0 and 9.7, a difference of 6.3.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−4.6
away
−14.4
-100
A +9.8 difference in points over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 4 times in 100.
plain
16.0
9.7
101520
A +6.3 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs IND | L | 8 | 19.7 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ UTA | L | 7 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 10 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vsDEN | L | 11 | 24.1 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs SAC | W | 22 | 20.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 20 | 14.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ MEM | W | 12 | 23.4 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsUTA | W | 19 | 23.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 39%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.