Jaylin Williams’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Jaylin Williams was 30.1 points under at home and 33.3 points under away in 2026-27, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 3.0 and 2.8, a difference of 0.3. Expected was 3.0 points lower at home than away. All 3 second-half games were away.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−30.1
away
−33.3
-40-200
A +3.2 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
3.0
2.8
0246
A +0.3 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ SAS | W | 5 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 3 | 38.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 0 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs PHX | W | 6 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 0 | 40.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ HOU | L | 3 | 31.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ CLE | W | 3 | 34.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.