Jamison Battle’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Jamison Battle was 2.4 points under at home and 1.5 points over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 5.7 and 10.0, a difference of 4.3.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−2.4
away
+1.5
-50510
A −3.9 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
5.7
10.0
5101520
A −4.3 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 8 | 7.3 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ WAS | W | 5 | 9.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 4 | 9.1 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs ORL | W | 7 | 8.4 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsORL | L | 2 | 8.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ LAL | L | 20 | 8.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 12 | 6.1 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 9 | 9.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 28%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.