Isaac Okoro’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Isaac Okoro was 1.7 points under at home and 0.1 points over away in 2026-27, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 3.5 and 5.5, a difference of 2.0.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−1.7
away
+0.1
-505
A −1.9 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
3.5
5.5
0510
A −2.0 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ TOR | L | 4 | 5.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ MIL | W | 12 | 5.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs WAS | L | 0 | 5.3 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ BOS | L | 1 | 5.1 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs NYK | L | 7 | 5.1 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @BOS | L | 6 | 5.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 4 | 5.4 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @NYK | L | 6 | 5.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 9%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.