Georges Niang’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Georges Niang was 2.3 points over at home and 1.8 points over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 7.8 and 6.8, a difference of 1.0.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+2.3
away
+1.8
05
A +0.5 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
7.8
6.8
510
A +1.0 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ LAL | L | 7 | 5.2 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs MEM | L | 4 | 6.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ PHX | L | 4 | 4.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ DEN | W | 9 | 5.1 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ MIN | W | 7 | 5.5 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsLAL | W | 11 | 6.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 3 | 3.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsPHX | W | 13 | 4.9 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 18%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.