Dorian Finney-Smith’s points vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Dorian Finney-Smith was 2.0 points over vs a division opponent and 0.8 points under vs a team outside the division in 2026-27, 1 game against 2. The plain averages are 3.0 and 0.0, a difference of 3.0.
One game vs a division opponent is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
vs a division opponent
+2.0
vs a team outside the division
−0.8
01
plain
3.0
0.0
0123
The games
vs a division opponentvs a team outside the division
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ CHA | W | 3 | 1.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ HOU | L | 0 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NOP | L | 0 | 1.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 3%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% of the difference the model predicts.