Dean Wade’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Dean Wade was 1.3 points under at home and 5.6 points under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 5.5 and 2.3, a difference of 3.2. Both first-half games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−1.3
away
−5.6
-50
A +4.3 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 16 times in 100.
plain
5.5
2.3
02468
A +3.2 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs MIL | W | 7 | 7.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs DET | L | 7 | 7.1 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ IND | W | 0 | 8.2 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs NYK | W | 0 | 7.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ CHA | W | 4 | 8.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 8 | 5.8 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @DET | W | 3 | 6.9 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 20%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.