Darius Acuff Jr.’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Darius Acuff Jr. was 6.9 points over at home and 5.9 points over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 25.7 and 25.6, a difference of 0.1. Expected was 1.0 points lower at home than away.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+6.9
away
+5.9
-1001020
A +1.0 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.7
25.6
2030
A +0.1 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ LAC | L | 12 | 24.7 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs POR | L | 33 | 18.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs MEM | L | 22 | 16.8 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ SAS | L | 19 | 17.8 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ NOP | L | 34 | 19.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @MEM | L | 38 | 17.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 25 | 19.1 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs LAL | L | 22 | 21.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 34%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.