Cooper Flagg’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Cooper Flagg was 14.2 points over at home and 13.5 points over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 25.3 and 23.5, a difference of 1.8. All 3 first-half games were away.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+14.2
away
+13.5
01020
A +0.7 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.3
23.5
15202530
A +1.8 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ HOU | L | 32 | 8.1 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ IND | W | 14 | 11.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 29 | 10.6 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs OKC | W | 26 | 8.4 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsHOU | W | 33 | 8.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs SAC | L | 17 | 16.3 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @ SAS | L | 19 | 9.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.