Cam Spencer’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Cam Spencer was 1.7 points under at home and 1.0 points under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 8.3 and 10.0, a difference of 1.8.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−1.7
away
−1.0
-50
A −0.7 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
8.3
10.0
510
A −1.8 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs UTA | W | 3 | 10.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ GSW | W | 11 | 12.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ SAC | W | 13 | 9.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @UTA | W | 8 | 11.5 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ POR | W | 8 | 11.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSAC | W | 10 | 9.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs NOP | L | 13 | 10.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs IND | L | 7 | 9.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 18%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.