Caleb Wilson’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Caleb Wilson was 14.6 points over at home and 7.5 points over away in 2026-27, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 25.0 and 17.7, a difference of 7.3.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+14.6
away
+7.5
010
A +7.2 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.0
17.7
102030
A +7.3 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ TOR | L | 16 | 10.5 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ MIL | W | 21 | 9.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs WAS | L | 30 | 10.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ BOS | L | 17 | 11.0 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs NYK | L | 20 | 9.9 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @BOS | L | 23 | 10.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 24 | 9.3 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @NYK | L | 5 | 10.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 34%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.