Austin Reaves’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Austin Reaves was 8.4 points over at home and 5.1 points over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 24.6 and 21.8, a difference of 2.9.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+8.4
away
+5.1
0510
A +3.3 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
24.6
21.8
2025
A +2.9 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs GSW | W | 23 | 17.0 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 28 | 19.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ UTA | W | 29 | 15.3 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs POR | L | 26 | 14.3 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @LAC | W | 16 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @GSW | L | 21 | 17.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs TOR | W | 19 | 14.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 27 | 16.9 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @ SAC | W | 21 | 13.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 28%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.