Ajay Mitchell’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, Ajay Mitchell was 8.4 points over at home and 3.0 points over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 20.8 and 14.8, a difference of 6.0.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+8.4
away
+3.0
010
A +5.4 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 17 times in 100.
plain
20.8
14.8
102030
A +6.0 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ SAS | W | 4 | 10.3 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs DEN | W | 12 | 11.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 18 | 13.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs PHX | W | 30 | 12.4 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 29 | 11.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ HOU | L | 6 | 12.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ CLE | W | 20 | 13.0 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 23 | 12.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 20%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.