AJ Green’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed guards, AJ Green was 0.3 points under at home and 3.5 points over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 5.8 and 8.8, a difference of 3.0. All 3 division games were at home.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.3
away
+3.5
-505
A −3.7 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
5.8
8.8
0510
A −3.0 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ WAS | L | 6 | 5.3 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs CHI | L | 11 | 7.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 11 | 5.3 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs IND | W | 3 | 4.8 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs HOU | L | 9 | 5.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 0 | 6.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 13 | 5.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @ BOS | L | 5 | 5.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed guards in its other 2026-27 games, minus 1.3 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for guards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s guards’ points in his games, 10%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 96% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.