UT Rio Grande Valley’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UT Rio Grande Valley was 6.4 points under at home and 4.0 points over away over its last 60 games, 25 games against 27. The plain averages are 74.7 and 76.0, a difference of 1.3. Expected was 4.4 points higher at home than away. Both ranked opponents were away.
UT Rio Grande Valley’s −10.4 at home vs away over expected ranks 104th of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
points a game over expected
at home
−6.4
away
+4.0
-20020
A −10.4 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
74.7
76.0
6080100
A −1.3 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2024 | @ Wisconsin | L | 84 | 64.4 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | vs Le Moyne | W | 97 | 86.9 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | vs Stephen F. Austin | W | 68 | 74.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Lamar | L | 52 | 72.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vsNNorthern New Mexico | W | 72 | — | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs Southern Utah | W | 78 | 78.9 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vsCCollege of Biblical Studies | W | 106 | — | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vsDDallas Christian | W | 88 | — | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ LSU New Orleans | W | 76 | 82.2 | |
| Jan 6, 2025 | @ SE Louisiana | L | 75 | 72.5 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | L | 74 | 72.2 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs East Texas A&M | W | 57 | 79.6 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @ Houston Christian | L | 57 | 72.7 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | @ Incarnate Word | W | 85 | 73.0 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vs McNeese | L | 63 | 69.3 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | vs Nicholls | L | 75 | 76.4 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vsTexas A&M-Corpus Christi | W | 83 | 74.5 | |
| Feb 3, 2025 | @ Northwestern State | L | 63 | 70.4 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @Lamar | L | 68 | 68.4 | |
| Feb 10, 2025 | @Stephen F. Austin | L | 75 | 71.5 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsHouston Christian | W | 76 | 74.4 | |
| Feb 17, 2025 | vsIncarnate Word | L | 60 | 77.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @Nicholls | L | 84 | 72.9 | |
| Feb 24, 2025 | @McNeese | L | 65 | 66.2 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsLSU New Orleans | W | 88 | 84.3 | |
| Mar 3, 2025 | vsSE Louisiana | W | 77 | 75.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ Baylor | L | 81 | 70.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Southern Utah | W | 95 | 79.7 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @ Boise State | L | 65 | 69.3 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vsSSouthwestern Adventist | W | 110 | — | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Missouri State | L | 67 | 74.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 73 | 62.9 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @Stephen F. Austin | L | 60 | 69.6 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Austin Peay | W | 63 | 77.9 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | vs UT Arlington | L | 50 | 70.9 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | @Lamar | W | 83 | 71.4 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsCCollege of Biblical Studies | W | 109 | — | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsLSU New Orleans | L | 69 | 81.0 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vsNicholls | L | 69 | 79.2 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsTexas A&M-Corpus Christi | L | 59 | 72.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | vsIncarnate Word | W | 80 | 78.5 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @East Texas A&M | L | 69 | 76.9 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @Northwestern State | L | 63 | 74.5 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsMcNeese | W | 79 | 70.1 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vsSE Louisiana | W | 68 | 75.5 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Houston Christian | W | 68 | 73.9 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | @Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | W | 64 | 69.9 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Incarnate Word | W | 106 | 74.2 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vsHouston Christian | W | 74 | 76.1 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @LSU New Orleans | W | 95 | 76.9 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | @Nicholls | W | 92 | 75.2 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsStephen F. Austin | L | 57 | 72.4 | |
| Feb 16, 2026 | vsLamar | W | 70 | 74.8 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @SE Louisiana | W | 96 | 71.1 | |
| Feb 23, 2026 | @McNeese | L | 68 | 68.2 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsEast Texas A&M | W | 63 | 79.9 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | vsNorthwestern State | W | 74 | 76.4 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | vsNicholls (neutral) | W | 86 | 76.9 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vsMcNeese (neutral) | L | 80 | 68.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsTTexas A&M-Kingsville | W | 81 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024-25, plus 1.4 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 90% in 2024-25, 90% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northern New Mexico, College of Biblical Studies, Dallas Christian, Southwestern Adventist, College of Biblical Studies, Texas A&M-Kingsville have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.