St. John's’ turnovers at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, St. John's was 1.4 turnovers over at home and 2.8 turnovers under away in 2025-26, 20 games against 10. The plain averages are 11.1 and 7.7, a difference of 3.4. Both games while in the top 5 were at home. All 7 nonconference games were at home.
St. John's’ +4.2 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
turnovers a game over expected
at home
+1.4
away
−2.8
-505
A +4.2 difference in turnovers over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
11.1
7.7
51015
A +3.4 difference in turnovers at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Quinnipiac | W | 14 | 9.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | 12 | 8.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs William & Mary | W | 11 | 10.8 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Bucknell | W | 12 | 9.7 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | L | 9 | 13.1 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Baylor (neutral) | W | 9 | 9.6 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Auburn (neutral) | L | 14 | 10.1 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | W | 19 | 9.3 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Iona | W | 17 | 8.8 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs DePaul | W | 10 | 10.7 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Kentucky (neutral) | L | 11 | 9.4 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Harvard | W | 11 | 8.3 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @ Georgetown | W | 11 | 9.6 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Providence | L | 12 | 8.3 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @ Butler | W | 5 | 10.0 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Creighton | W | 6 | 9.0 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | vs Marquette | W | 11 | 11.4 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ Villanova | W | 8 | 11.3 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vs Seton Hall | W | 12 | 11.6 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Xavier | W | 9 | 9.8 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vsButler | W | 5 | 9.5 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | @DePaul | W | 6 | 11.4 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 10 | 10.2 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | vsXavier | W | 9 | 9.3 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Providence | W | 4 | 9.2 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @Marquette | W | 12 | 11.8 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsCreighton | W | 10 | 8.3 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @UConn | L | 7 | 10.8 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsVillanova | W | 8 | 10.8 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vsGeorgetown | W | 9 | 9.3 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | @Seton Hall | W | 9 | 12.3 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vsProvidence | W | 9 | 8.5 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsSeton Hall | W | 13 | 11.6 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsUConn | W | 8 | 10.3 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Northern Iowa (neutral) | W | 8 | 9.2 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Kansas (neutral) | W | 7 | 8.4 | |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vs Duke (neutral) | L | 5 | 10.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 81% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.