Sacramento State’s assists at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Sacramento State was 4.0 assists over at home and 2.8 assists under away in 2025-26, 11 games against 16. The plain averages are 17.6 and 9.3, a difference of 8.3.
Sacramento State’s +6.8 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
assists a game over expected
at home
+4.0
away
−2.8
-505
A +6.8 difference in assists over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
17.6
9.3
5101520
A +8.3 difference in assists at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | assists | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | vsDDominican (CA) | W | 19 | — | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vsJJessup | W | 19 | — | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs UC Santa Barbara | L | 18 | 12.2 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ UC Davis | L | 11 | 12.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs Presbyterian | W | 13 | 13.4 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ UCLA | L | 9 | 12.7 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @ California | L | 10 | 13.0 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vsSSan Francisco State | W | 24 | — | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Pacific | L | 8 | 10.6 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @ Baylor | L | 12 | 11.2 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ California Baptist | L | 8 | 10.1 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @ Cal State Northridge | L | 12 | 15.1 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @ Idaho State | L | 7 | 12.2 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Weber State | L | 10 | 13.4 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Portland State | L | 8 | 12.1 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vs Northern Arizona | W | 17 | 14.0 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Northern Colorado | W | 17 | 10.4 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @ Idaho | L | 14 | 10.5 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Eastern Washington | L | 11 | 13.0 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs Montana State | W | 13 | 11.9 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Montana | W | 22 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vsWeber State | W | 21 | 13.9 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsPortland State | L | 12 | 13.0 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Northern Colorado | L | 5 | 10.1 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Northern Arizona | L | 6 | 13.5 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsEastern Washington | L | 17 | 13.8 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsIdaho | L | 13 | 11.7 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @Montana | L | 11 | 12.6 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Montana State | L | 7 | 11.1 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | vsIdaho State | W | 21 | 12.5 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsIdaho (neutral) | L | 7 | 11.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Dominican (CA), Jessup, San Francisco State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.