NC State’s rebounds at home and away
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, NC State was NaN rebounds over at home and 2.9 rebounds under away over its last 60 games, 31 games against 21. The plain averages are 33.7 and 27.0, a difference of 6.7.
NC State’s NaN at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
rebounds a game over expected
at home
NaN
away
−2.9
A NaN difference in rebounds over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
33.7
27.0
203040
A +6.7 difference in rebounds at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rebounds | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs BYU (neutral) | L | 26 | 26.1 | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | vs Texas | L | 26 | 30.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Florida State | W | 30 | 30.3 | |
| Dec 10, 2024 | vs Coppin State | W | 37 | 35.7 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | @ Kansas | L | 23 | 29.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs Rider | W | 32 | 32.2 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | @ Virginia | L | 31 | 28.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | L | 23 | 29.8 | |
| Jan 8, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | W | 27 | 28.1 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vs North Carolina | L | 36 | 29.1 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 22 | 28.2 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vs California | L | 30 | 31.3 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vs SMU | L | 30 | 28.6 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | @ Duke | L | 23 | 25.4 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Clemson | L | 34 | 28.4 | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | @California | L | 30 | 30.6 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @ Stanford | L | 30 | 27.9 | |
| Feb 12, 2025 | vs Louisville | L | 28 | 29.4 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vs Boston College | W | 31 | 31.5 | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | @North Carolina | L | 19 | 29.3 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vsWake Forest | W | 35 | 29.9 | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | @ Syracuse | L | 29 | 29.5 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 32 | 31.0 | |
| Mar 5, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 31 | 29.1 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @ Miami | L | 28 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs North Carolina Central | W | 39 | 37.5 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 35 | 34.8 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs UNC Greensboro | W | 40 | 35.6 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vs VCU | W | 43 | 31.5 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Seton Hall (neutral) | L | 26 | 31.0 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Boise State (neutral) | W | 33 | 27.2 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vsTexas (neutral) | L | 25 | 27.1 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @ Auburn | L | 19 | 28.8 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs UNC Asheville | W | 35 | 33.2 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 39 | 33.5 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vsKansas | L | 40 | 32.2 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Texas Southern | W | 44 | 36.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | W | 32 | 32.3 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vsWake Forest | W | 36 | 31.8 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsVirginia | L | 20 | 30.0 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @Boston College | W | 25 | 35.0 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Florida State | W | 36 | 34.1 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsGeorgia Tech | L | 32 | 34.5 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | @Clemson | W | 26 | 29.8 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Pittsburgh | W | 29 | 29.6 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vsSyracuse | W | 44 | 32.8 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Wake Forest | W | 26 | 31.7 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | @SMU | W | 30 | 30.1 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 28 | 32.0 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | @Louisville | L | 28 | 29.9 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsMiami | L | 27 | 28.1 | |
| Feb 17, 2026 | vsNorth Carolina | W | 38 | 30.2 | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | @Virginia | L | 30 | 28.8 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Notre Dame | L | 27 | 30.4 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | vsDuke | L | 31 | 26.3 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsStanford | L | 31 | 31.1 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vsPittsburgh (neutral) | W | 20 | 30.5 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vsVirginia (neutral) | L | 25 | 29.4 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vsTexas (neutral) | L | 25 | 27.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs Campbell | W | 35 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 in 2024-25, plus 0.4 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 86% in 2024-25, 87% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.