Michigan’s rebounds in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan was 1.2 rebounds under in a conference game and NaN rebounds over in a nonconference game over its last 60 games, 39 games against 21. The plain averages are 33.8 and 40.2, a difference of 6.4. Both games while unranked were in a conference game.
Michigan’s NaN in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
rebounds a game over expected
A NaN difference in rebounds over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −6.4 difference in rebounds in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rebounds | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2025 | @ Purdue | L | 32 | 31.2 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 25 | 35.7 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 36 | 36.0 | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | vs Oregon | W | 34 | 34.5 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @ Indiana | W | 33 | 33.9 | |
| Feb 11, 2025 | vsPurdue | W | 33 | 31.8 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | @ Ohio State | W | 43 | 33.4 | |
| Feb 21, 2025 | vs Michigan State | L | 24 | 32.6 | |
| Feb 24, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 42 | 35.1 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | vsRutgers | W | 34 | 36.8 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vs Illinois | L | 28 | 34.5 | |
| Mar 5, 2025 | vs Maryland | L | 39 | 34.9 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | @Michigan State | L | 25 | 31.8 | |
| Mar 14, 2025 | vsPurdue (neutral) | W | 40 | 31.1 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | vsMaryland (neutral) | W | 38 | 34.6 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vs Wisconsin (neutral) | W | 37 | 34.6 | |
| Mar 20, 2025 | vs UC San Diego (neutral) | W | 37 | 35.0 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | vs Texas A&M (neutral) | W | 43 | 31.3 | |
| Mar 28, 2025 | vs Auburn (neutral) | L | 29 | 32.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Oakland | W | 38 | 42.0 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs Wake Forest (neutral) | W | 45 | 37.4 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ TCU | W | 42 | 34.9 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 45 | 38.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs San Diego State (neutral) | W | 47 | 37.3 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vsAuburn (neutral) | W | 48 | 34.1 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Gonzaga (neutral) | W | 42 | 35.1 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsRutgers | W | 37 | 39.5 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Villanova | W | 47 | 37.0 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @Maryland | W | 25 | 36.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs La Salle | W | 40 | 38.5 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs McNeese | W | 53 | 38.7 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs USC | W | 38 | 38.1 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @Penn State | W | 33 | 37.1 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsWisconsin | L | 27 | 38.8 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 37 | 36.0 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Oregon | W | 29 | 37.2 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vsIndiana | W | 40 | 36.0 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | vsOhio State | W | 35 | 35.3 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vsNebraska | W | 32 | 38.2 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | @Michigan State | W | 30 | 31.9 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vsPenn State | W | 39 | 37.5 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @Ohio State | W | 41 | 34.3 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | @ Northwestern | W | 38 | 37.2 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vs UCLA | W | 28 | 36.8 | |
| Feb 17, 2026 | @Purdue | W | 36 | 32.3 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vs Duke (neutral) | L | 25 | 32.6 | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | vs Minnesota | W | 37 | 36.5 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | @Illinois | W | 30 | 34.0 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 36 | 32.3 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsMichigan State | W | 29 | 32.6 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsOhio State (neutral) | W | 31 | 35.2 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsWisconsin (neutral) | W | 37 | 37.9 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsPurdue (neutral) | L | 31 | 32.9 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vs Howard (neutral) | W | 34 | 39.1 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Saint Louis (neutral) | W | 40 | 37.4 | |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vs Alabama (neutral) | W | 40 | 39.5 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | vs Tennessee (neutral) | W | 38 | 31.6 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vs Arizona (neutral) | W | 38 | 33.8 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | vs UConn (neutral) | W | 36 | 33.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vsOakland | W | 38 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 in 2024-25, plus 0.4 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 86% in 2024-25, 87% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.