Georgia Tech’s points of margin at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Tech was 3.2 points under at home and 7.8 points over away in 2025-26, 19 games against 10. The plain averages are -0.2 and -8.6, a difference of 8.4. Expected was 19.4 points higher at home than away. All 4 games without Baye Ndongo were at home.
Georgia Tech’s −10.9 at home vs away over expected ranks 363rd of the 365 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
points of margin a game over expected
at home
−3.2
away
+7.8
-20020
A −10.9 difference in points of margin over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
-0.2
-8.6
-20020
A +8.4 difference in points of margin at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Maryland Eastern Shore | W | 4 | 19.7 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Bryant | W | 29 | 18.8 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | vs SE Louisiana | W | 10 | 11.4 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | -5 | -18.5 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 2 | 9.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs West Georgia | W | 16 | 13.3 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs DePaul (neutral) | L | -14 | -3.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Drake (neutral) | L | -10 | 3.3 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | L | -12 | -0.9 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Monmouth | W | 12 | 4.7 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Marist | W | 11 | 5.9 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Lafayette | W | 14 | 15.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs Florida A&M | W | 24 | 15.4 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @ Duke | L | -6 | -30.2 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 12 | 1.4 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vs Syracuse | L | -10 | -3.8 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Miami | L | -10 | -17.3 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | L | -23 | -1.3 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ NC State | W | 4 | -17.8 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | -14 | -10.3 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | L | -6 | -12.5 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs North Carolina | L | -16 | -12.2 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @ California | L | -5 | -10.8 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | -23 | -10.5 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | -16 | -5.3 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | -15 | -7.7 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vs Virginia | L | -26 | -13.9 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @ Louisville | L | -17 | -21.7 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Florida State | L | -9 | -5.4 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsCalifornia | L | -11 | -5.0 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @Clemson | L | -3 | -16.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 94% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.