Werder Bremen’s goals vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
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Through Werder Bremen’s game on May 16, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Werder Bremen was 0.38 goals under vs a top-half team and 0.35 goals over vs a bottom-half team over its last 75 games, 33 games against 32. The plain averages are 0.88 and 1.84, a difference of 0.96.
Werder Bremen’s −0.73 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 119th of the 119 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through May 16, 2026.
goals a game over expected
vs a top-half team
−0.38
vs a bottom-half team
+0.35
02
A −0.73 difference in goals over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
0.88
1.84
01234
A −0.96 difference in goals vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up once in 100.
The games
vs a top-half teamvs a bottom-half team
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | @ Eintracht Frankfurt | T | 1 | 1.20 | |
| Apr 14, 2024 | @ Bayer Leverkusen | L | 0 | 0.66 | |
| Apr 21, 2024 | vs VfB Stuttgart | W | 2 | 1.18 | |
| Apr 27, 2024 | @ FC Augsburg | W | 3 | 1.35 | |
| May 4, 2024 | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | T | 2 | 1.84 | |
| May 11, 2024 | @ RB Leipzig | T | 1 | 0.96 | |
| May 18, 2024 | vs VfL Bochum | W | 4 | 1.90 | |
| Aug 24, 2024 | @FC Augsburg | T | 2 | 1.39 | |
| Aug 31, 2024 | vs Borussia Dortmund | T | 0 | 1.56 | |
| Sep 15, 2024 | @ Mainz | W | 2 | 1.22 | |
| Sep 21, 2024 | vs Bayern Munich | L | 0 | 1.23 | |
| Sep 29, 2024 | @ TSG Hoffenheim | W | 4 | 1.72 | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | vs SC Freiburg | L | 0 | 1.71 | |
| Oct 20, 2024 | @ VfL Wolfsburg | W | 4 | 1.39 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | vsBayer Leverkusen | T | 2 | 1.32 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @Borussia Mönchengladbach | L | 1 | 1.61 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Holstein Kiel | W | 2 | 2.27 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @Eintracht Frankfurt | L | 0 | 1.41 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vsVfB Stuttgart | T | 2 | 1.70 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @VfL Bochum | W | 1 | 1.82 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | @ St. Pauli | W | 2 | 1.14 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs 1. FC Union Berlin | W | 4 | 1.45 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @RB Leipzig | L | 2 | 1.37 | |
| Jan 15, 2025 | vs 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | T | 3 | 1.82 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vsFC Augsburg | L | 0 | 1.64 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @Borussia Dortmund | T | 2 | 1.32 | |
| Jan 31, 2025 | vsMainz | W | 1 | 1.43 | |
| Feb 7, 2025 | @Bayern Munich | L | 0 | 1.07 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | vsTSG Hoffenheim | L | 1 | 2.02 | |
| Feb 21, 2025 | @SC Freiburg | L | 0 | 1.55 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsVfL Wolfsburg | L | 1 | 1.70 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @Bayer Leverkusen | W | 2 | 1.16 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | vsBorussia Mönchengladbach | L | 2 | 1.72 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | @Holstein Kiel | W | 3 | 2.06 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | vsEintracht Frankfurt | W | 2 | 1.47 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @VfB Stuttgart | W | 2 | 1.54 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | vsVfL Bochum | W | 1 | 1.98 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | vsSt. Pauli | T | 0 | 1.39 | |
| May 3, 2025 | @1. FC Union Berlin | T | 2 | 1.39 | |
| May 10, 2025 | vsRB Leipzig | T | 0 | 1.62 | |
| May 17, 2025 | @1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 4 | 1.61 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @Eintracht Frankfurt | L | 1 | 1.34 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsBayer Leverkusen | T | 3 | 0.98 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 4 | 0.84 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSC Freiburg | L | 0 | 1.40 | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | @Bayern Munich | L | 0 | 0.66 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsSt. Pauli | W | 1 | 1.39 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | T | 2 | 1.38 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vs1. FC Union Berlin | W | 1 | 1.36 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Mainz | T | 1 | 0.98 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vsVfL Wolfsburg | W | 2 | 1.58 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @RB Leipzig | L | 0 | 0.92 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs FC Cologne | T | 1 | 1.49 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Hamburg SV | L | 2 | 0.95 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsVfB Stuttgart | L | 0 | 1.23 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @FC Augsburg | T | 0 | 1.22 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.76 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | vsEintracht Frankfurt | T | 3 | 1.51 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Bayer Leverkusen | L | 0 | 0.85 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vsTSG Hoffenheim | L | 0 | 1.30 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsBorussia Mönchengladbach | T | 1 | 1.24 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @SC Freiburg | L | 0 | 1.13 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsBayern Munich | L | 0 | 0.92 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @St. Pauli | L | 1 | 1.13 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 2 | 1.64 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @1. FC Union Berlin | W | 4 | 0.96 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsMainz | L | 0 | 1.29 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @VfL Wolfsburg | W | 1 | 1.36 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vsRB Leipzig | L | 1 | 1.13 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @FC Cologne | L | 1 | 1.22 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vsHamburg SV | W | 3 | 1.17 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @VfB Stuttgart | T | 1 | 0.92 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsFC Augsburg | L | 1 | 1.43 | |
| May 9, 2026 | @TSG Hoffenheim | L | 0 | 1.03 | |
| May 16, 2026 | vsBorussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 1.02 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.15 in 2023-24, plus 0.10 in 2024-25, plus 0.16 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% in 2023-24, 77% in 2024-25, 75% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 10 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 are neither vs a top-half team nor vs a bottom-half team, and sit out.