VfL Wolfsburg’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, VfL Wolfsburg was 0.25 goals under at home and 0.20 goals over away in 2025-26, 17 games against 17. The plain averages are 1.24 and 1.41, a difference of 0.18. Expected was 0.27 goals higher at home than away.
VfL Wolfsburg’s −0.45 at home vs away over expected ranks 96th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.25
away
+0.20
-1012
A −0.45 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.24
1.41
0123
A −0.18 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2025 | @ 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 3 | 1.53 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Mainz | T | 1 | 1.45 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs FC Cologne | T | 3 | 1.59 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.96 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs RB Leipzig | L | 0 | 1.38 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ FC Augsburg | L | 1 | 1.37 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs VfB Stuttgart | L | 0 | 1.44 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Hamburg SV | W | 1 | 1.20 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs TSG Hoffenheim | L | 2 | 1.40 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ Werder Bremen | L | 1 | 1.34 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Bayer Leverkusen | L | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Eintracht Frankfurt | T | 1 | 1.54 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs 1. FC Union Berlin | W | 3 | 1.47 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 | 1.09 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs SC Freiburg | L | 3 | 1.46 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ Bayern Munich | L | 1 | 0.82 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vs St. Pauli | W | 2 | 1.54 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | T | 1 | 1.89 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Mainz | L | 1 | 1.18 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | @FC Cologne | L | 0 | 1.47 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsBorussia Dortmund | L | 1 | 1.18 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @RB Leipzig | T | 2 | 1.02 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsFC Augsburg | L | 2 | 1.59 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @VfB Stuttgart | L | 0 | 1.17 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsHamburg SV | L | 1 | 1.46 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @TSG Hoffenheim | T | 1 | 1.19 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vsWerder Bremen | L | 0 | 1.65 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @Bayer Leverkusen | L | 3 | 0.92 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsEintracht Frankfurt | L | 1 | 1.80 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | @1. FC Union Berlin | W | 2 | 1.25 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vsBorussia Mönchengladbach | T | 0 | 1.49 | |
| May 3, 2026 | @SC Freiburg | T | 1 | 1.29 | |
| May 9, 2026 | vsBayern Munich | L | 0 | 1.12 | |
| May 16, 2026 | @St. Pauli | W | 3 | 1.23 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.