VfL Wolfsburg’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, VfL Wolfsburg was 0.48 points under at home and 0.39 points over away over its last 75 games, 38 games against 37. The plain averages are 0.84 and 1.32, a difference of 0.48.
VfL Wolfsburg’s −0.87 at home vs away over expected ranks 139th of the 140 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.48
away
+0.39
-202
A −0.87 difference in points over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
0.84
1.32
0123
A −0.48 difference in points at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 4 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | L | 0 | 1.59 | |
| Apr 13, 2024 | @ RB Leipzig | L | 0 | 0.66 | |
| Apr 20, 2024 | vs VfL Bochum | W | 3 | 1.48 | |
| Apr 27, 2024 | @ SC Freiburg | W | 3 | 0.99 | |
| May 4, 2024 | vs SV Darmstadt 98 | W | 3 | 1.98 | |
| May 12, 2024 | @ Bayern Munich | L | 0 | 0.51 | |
| May 18, 2024 | vs Mainz | L | 0 | 1.54 | |
| Aug 25, 2024 | vsBayern Munich | L | 0 | 0.67 | |
| Aug 31, 2024 | @ Holstein Kiel | W | 3 | 1.64 | |
| Sep 14, 2024 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | L | 0 | 1.14 | |
| Sep 22, 2024 | @ Bayer Leverkusen | L | 0 | 0.61 | |
| Sep 28, 2024 | vs VfB Stuttgart | T | 1 | 1.39 | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | @VfL Bochum | W | 3 | 1.64 | |
| Oct 20, 2024 | vs Werder Bremen | L | 0 | 1.36 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ St. Pauli | T | 1 | 1.54 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs FC Augsburg | T | 1 | 1.48 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 3 | 1.59 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs 1. FC Union Berlin | W | 3 | 1.45 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @RB Leipzig | W | 3 | 1.03 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vsMainz | W | 3 | 1.16 | |
| Dec 13, 2024 | @SC Freiburg | L | 0 | 1.06 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 1.13 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ TSG Hoffenheim | W | 3 | 1.36 | |
| Jan 14, 2025 | vsBorussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 | 1.43 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | @Bayern Munich | L | 0 | 0.42 | |
| Jan 24, 2025 | vsHolstein Kiel | T | 1 | 1.99 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @Eintracht Frankfurt | T | 1 | 0.84 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsBayer Leverkusen | T | 1 | 0.82 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | @VfB Stuttgart | W | 3 | 1.05 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vsVfL Bochum | T | 1 | 1.99 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @Werder Bremen | W | 3 | 0.95 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsSt. Pauli | T | 1 | 1.80 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | @FC Augsburg | L | 0 | 1.28 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | vs1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | L | 0 | 2.00 | |
| Apr 6, 2025 | @1. FC Union Berlin | L | 0 | 1.35 | |
| Apr 11, 2025 | vsRB Leipzig | L | 0 | 1.42 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | @Mainz | T | 1 | 1.01 | |
| Apr 26, 2025 | vsSC Freiburg | L | 0 | 1.32 | |
| May 3, 2025 | @Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.87 | |
| May 9, 2025 | vsTSG Hoffenheim | T | 1 | 1.72 | |
| May 17, 2025 | @Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 | 1.18 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 3 | 1.20 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vsMainz | T | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs FC Cologne | T | 1 | 1.44 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.35 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsRB Leipzig | L | 0 | 0.86 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @FC Augsburg | L | 0 | 0.98 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsVfB Stuttgart | L | 0 | 0.86 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Hamburg SV | W | 3 | 0.85 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vsTSG Hoffenheim | L | 0 | 0.91 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @Werder Bremen | L | 0 | 1.21 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsBayer Leverkusen | L | 0 | 0.84 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @Eintracht Frankfurt | T | 1 | 0.90 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs1. FC Union Berlin | W | 3 | 1.22 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 | 0.85 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsSC Freiburg | L | 0 | 1.21 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @Bayern Munich | L | 0 | -0.14 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vsSt. Pauli | W | 3 | 1.55 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | T | 1 | 1.65 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Mainz | L | 0 | 0.97 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | @FC Cologne | L | 0 | 1.13 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsBorussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.70 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @RB Leipzig | T | 1 | 0.46 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsFC Augsburg | L | 0 | 1.33 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @VfB Stuttgart | L | 0 | 0.51 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsHamburg SV | L | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @TSG Hoffenheim | T | 1 | 0.51 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vsWerder Bremen | L | 0 | 1.56 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @Bayer Leverkusen | L | 0 | 0.50 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsEintracht Frankfurt | L | 0 | 1.29 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | @1. FC Union Berlin | W | 3 | 0.87 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vsBorussia Mönchengladbach | T | 1 | 1.30 | |
| May 3, 2026 | @SC Freiburg | T | 1 | 0.81 | |
| May 9, 2026 | vsBayern Munich | L | 0 | 0.20 | |
| May 16, 2026 | @St. Pauli | W | 3 | 1.20 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.20 in 2023-24, plus 0.14 in 2024-25, plus 0.21 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 84% in 2023-24, 83% in 2024-25, 79% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.