Toulouse’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Toulouse was 0.97 goals under at home and 0.53 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.75 and 1.80, a difference of 1.05. Both games vs top-half teams were away.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.97
away
+0.53
-2-101
A −1.49 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.
plain
0.75
1.80
0123
A −1.05 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs Lyon | L | 0 | 1.37 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Brest | T | 2 | 1.37 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs Lille | L | 0 | 1.64 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Lorient | T | 2 | 1.01 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Le Havre AC | W | 3 | 1.83 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ AS Monaco | T | 2 | 1.01 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ Le Mans | W | 3 | 1.46 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Troyes | T | 0 | 2.03 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Marseille | L | 0 | 1.52 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.