Torino’s expected goals conceded at home and away
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Through Torino’s game on Aug 23, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Torino was 0.16 expected goals over at home and 0.17 expected goals under away over its last 75 games, 38 games against 37. The plain averages are 1.33 and 1.25, a difference of 0.08. Expected was 0.25 expected goals lower at home than away.
Torino’s +0.33 at home vs away over expected ranks 3rd of the 120 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through Aug 23, 2026.
expected goals conceded a game over expected
at home
+0.16
away
−0.17
-101
A +0.33 difference in expected goals conceded over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
1.33
1.25
12
A +0.08 difference in expected goals conceded at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | xG against | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2024 | @ Venezia | W | 0.80 | 1.14 | |
| Sep 15, 2024 | vs Lecce | T | 1.44 | 0.84 | |
| Sep 20, 2024 | @ Hellas Verona | W | 0.62 | 1.15 | |
| Sep 29, 2024 | vs Lazio | L | 2.14 | 1.33 | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | @ Internazionale | L | 2.25 | 1.54 | |
| Oct 20, 2024 | @ Cagliari | L | 1.73 | 1.19 | |
| Oct 25, 2024 | vs Como | W | 1.38 | 1.18 | |
| Oct 31, 2024 | @ AS Roma | L | 0.54 | 1.45 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs Fiorentina | L | 0.35 | 1.10 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Juventus | L | 1.18 | 1.36 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs Monza | T | 0.64 | 0.78 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs Napoli | L | 1.90 | 1.31 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Genoa | T | 0.42 | 1.17 | |
| Dec 13, 2024 | @ Empoli | W | 0.94 | 1.06 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Bologna | L | 1.03 | 1.19 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ Udinese | T | 0.97 | 1.24 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs Parma | T | 0.53 | 1.04 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | vsJuventus | T | 0.77 | 1.18 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @Fiorentina | T | 1.64 | 1.24 | |
| Jan 24, 2025 | vsCagliari | W | 0.42 | 1.05 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @ Atalanta | T | 1.87 | 1.81 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vsGenoa | T | 0.37 | 0.97 | |
| Feb 14, 2025 | @Bologna | L | 1.48 | 1.37 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vs AC Milan | W | 1.46 | 1.43 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @Monza | W | 1.29 | 0.95 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @Parma | T | 1.47 | 1.20 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | vsEmpoli | W | 1.02 | 0.86 | |
| Mar 31, 2025 | @Lazio | T | 1.49 | 1.56 | |
| Apr 6, 2025 | vsHellas Verona | T | 1.47 | 0.90 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @Como | L | 1.34 | 1.38 | |
| Apr 23, 2025 | vsUdinese | W | 1.09 | 1.03 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | @Napoli | L | 1.63 | 1.52 | |
| May 2, 2025 | vsVenezia | T | 0.74 | 0.94 | |
| May 11, 2025 | vsInternazionale | L | 1.26 | 1.38 | |
| May 18, 2025 | @Lecce | L | 0.86 | 1.07 | |
| May 25, 2025 | vsAS Roma | L | 1.06 | 1.23 | |
| Aug 25, 2025 | @Internazionale | L | 1.69 | 2.08 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vsFiorentina | T | 1.58 | 1.28 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @AS Roma | W | 1.32 | 1.65 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsAtalanta | L | 1.50 | 1.63 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | @Parma | L | 0.57 | 1.25 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Lazio | T | 0.67 | 1.48 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsNapoli | W | 2.19 | 1.34 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsGenoa | W | 1.44 | 1.12 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @Bologna | T | 0.59 | 1.51 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Pisa | T | 1.09 | 1.00 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Juventus | T | 1.55 | 1.97 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vsComo | L | 2.62 | 1.41 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @Lecce | L | 0.71 | 1.24 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vsAC Milan | L | 1.88 | 1.36 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Cremonese | W | 0.62 | 0.93 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Sassuolo | W | 0.52 | 1.46 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vsCagliari | L | 1.01 | 1.08 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @Hellas Verona | W | 0.26 | 1.34 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsUdinese | L | 1.90 | 1.07 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Atalanta | L | 2.14 | 1.89 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsAS Roma | L | 1.81 | 1.34 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Como | L | 1.75 | 1.74 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsLecce | W | 0.71 | 0.95 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Fiorentina | T | 1.85 | 1.55 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsBologna | L | 2.06 | 1.15 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Genoa | L | 1.43 | 1.41 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsLazio | W | 1.66 | 1.14 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | @Napoli | L | 1.56 | 1.66 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsParma | W | 0.76 | 0.95 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @AC Milan | L | 1.62 | 1.66 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @Pisa | W | 0.64 | 1.32 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsHellas Verona | W | 1.12 | 1.01 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @Cremonese | T | 0.93 | 1.20 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsInternazionale | T | 1.47 | 1.80 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @Udinese | L | 2.14 | 1.34 | |
| May 8, 2026 | vsSassuolo | W | 1.82 | 1.11 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Cagliari | L | 1.63 | 1.34 | |
| May 24, 2026 | vsJuventus | T | 2.29 | 1.65 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | vsAC Milan | L | 1.86 | 1.30 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.11 in 2024-25, minus 0.16 in 2025-26, minus 0.13 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% in 2024-25, 86% in 2025-26, 63% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Aug 23.