Torino’s expected goals conceded at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Torino was 0.33 expected goals over at home and 0.29 expected goals under away in 2025-26, 19 games against 19. The plain averages are 1.55 and 1.24, a difference of 0.31.
Torino’s +0.62 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
expected goals conceded a game over expected
at home
+0.33
away
−0.29
-101
A +0.62 difference in expected goals conceded over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
1.55
1.24
12
A +0.31 difference in expected goals conceded at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | xG against | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2025 | @ Internazionale | L | 1.69 | 2.08 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Fiorentina | T | 1.58 | 1.28 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ AS Roma | W | 1.32 | 1.65 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs Atalanta | L | 1.50 | 1.63 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | @ Parma | L | 0.57 | 1.25 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Lazio | T | 0.67 | 1.48 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Napoli | W | 2.19 | 1.34 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs Genoa | W | 1.44 | 1.12 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @ Bologna | T | 0.59 | 1.51 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Pisa | T | 1.09 | 1.00 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Juventus | T | 1.55 | 1.97 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | vs Como | L | 2.62 | 1.41 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Lecce | L | 0.71 | 1.24 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vs AC Milan | L | 1.88 | 1.36 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Cremonese | W | 0.62 | 0.93 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Sassuolo | W | 0.52 | 1.46 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Cagliari | L | 1.01 | 1.08 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Hellas Verona | W | 0.26 | 1.34 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vs Udinese | L | 1.90 | 1.07 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @Atalanta | L | 2.14 | 1.89 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsAS Roma | L | 1.81 | 1.34 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Como | L | 1.75 | 1.74 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsLecce | W | 0.71 | 0.95 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Fiorentina | T | 1.85 | 1.55 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsBologna | L | 2.06 | 1.15 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Genoa | L | 1.43 | 1.41 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsLazio | W | 1.66 | 1.14 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | @Napoli | L | 1.56 | 1.66 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsParma | W | 0.76 | 0.95 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @AC Milan | L | 1.62 | 1.66 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @Pisa | W | 0.64 | 1.32 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsHellas Verona | W | 1.12 | 1.01 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @Cremonese | T | 0.93 | 1.20 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsInternazionale | T | 1.47 | 1.80 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @Udinese | L | 2.14 | 1.34 | |
| May 8, 2026 | vsSassuolo | W | 1.82 | 1.11 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Cagliari | L | 1.63 | 1.34 | |
| May 24, 2026 | vsJuventus | T | 2.29 | 1.65 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 86% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.