St. Pauli’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, St. Pauli was 0.12 goals under at home and 0.16 goals under away in 2025-26, 17 games against 17. The plain averages are 1.00 and 0.71, a difference of 0.29.
St. Pauli’s +0.05 at home vs away over expected ranks 59th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.12
away
−0.16
-1012
A +0.05 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
0.71
0123
A +0.29 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Borussia Dortmund | T | 3 | 0.71 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Hamburg SV | W | 2 | 0.76 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs FC Augsburg | W | 2 | 1.20 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | @ VfB Stuttgart | L | 0 | 0.78 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Bayer Leverkusen | L | 1 | 0.88 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Werder Bremen | L | 0 | 1.00 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs TSG Hoffenheim | L | 0 | 1.11 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Eintracht Frankfurt | L | 0 | 1.19 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | L | 0 | 1.10 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ SC Freiburg | L | 1 | 0.90 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs 1. FC Union Berlin | L | 0 | 1.22 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Bayern Munich | L | 1 | 0.43 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ FC Cologne | T | 1 | 1.04 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 2 | 1.45 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Mainz | T | 0 | 0.84 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @ VfL Wolfsburg | L | 1 | 1.17 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Borussia Dortmund | L | 2 | 0.49 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | vsHamburg SV | T | 0 | 1.12 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | T | 1 | 0.94 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @FC Augsburg | L | 1 | 0.98 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsVfB Stuttgart | W | 2 | 0.95 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Bayer Leverkusen | L | 0 | 0.66 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsWerder Bremen | W | 2 | 1.16 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @TSG Hoffenheim | W | 1 | 0.80 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsEintracht Frankfurt | T | 0 | 1.45 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | @Borussia Mönchengladbach | L | 0 | 0.84 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsSC Freiburg | L | 1 | 1.16 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @1. FC Union Berlin | T | 1 | 0.91 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsBayern Munich | L | 0 | 0.73 | |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vsFC Cologne | T | 1 | 1.30 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | L | 0 | 1.28 | |
| May 3, 2026 | vsMainz | L | 1 | 1.05 | |
| May 9, 2026 | @RB Leipzig | L | 1 | 0.68 | |
| May 16, 2026 | vsVfL Wolfsburg | L | 1 | 1.43 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.