Nantes’ goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nantes was 0.05 goals under at home and 0.22 goals under away in 2025-26, 17 games against 17. The plain averages are 1.06 and 0.65, a difference of 0.41.
Nantes’ +0.17 at home vs away over expected ranks 50th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.05
away
−0.22
-101
A +0.17 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.06
0.65
0123
A +0.41 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2025 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.73 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | @ Strasbourg | L | 0 | 0.90 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs AJ Auxerre | W | 1 | 1.01 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Nice | L | 0 | 1.17 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Stade Rennais | T | 2 | 1.14 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Toulouse | T | 2 | 0.76 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Brest | T | 0 | 1.06 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs Lille | L | 0 | 0.91 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Paris FC | W | 2 | 0.86 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs AS Monaco | L | 3 | 1.18 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Metz | L | 0 | 1.81 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Le Havre AC | T | 1 | 0.74 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Lorient | T | 1 | 1.19 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Lyon | L | 0 | 0.72 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Lens | L | 1 | 0.84 | |
| Dec 12, 2025 | @ Angers | L | 1 | 0.83 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Marseille | W | 2 | 0.80 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsParis FC | L | 1 | 1.17 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsNice | L | 1 | 1.39 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Lorient | L | 1 | 0.93 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsLyon | L | 0 | 0.99 | |
| Feb 13, 2026 | @AS Monaco | L | 1 | 1.00 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsLe Havre AC | W | 2 | 0.96 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Lille | L | 0 | 0.65 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsAngers | L | 0 | 1.14 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsStrasbourg | L | 2 | 1.06 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @Metz | T | 0 | 1.55 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @AJ Auxerre | T | 0 | 0.79 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsBrest | T | 1 | 1.28 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.47 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @Stade Rennais | L | 1 | 0.92 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsMarseille | W | 3 | 1.02 | |
| May 8, 2026 | @Lens | L | 0 | 0.62 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsToulouse | T | 0 | 1.12 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.