Nantes’ expected goals vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nantes was 0.44 expected goals over vs a top-half team and 0.40 expected goals under vs a bottom-half team in 2025-26, 14 games against 15. The plain averages are 1.32 and 0.72, a difference of 0.60.
Nantes’ +0.84 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 1st of the 96 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
expected goals a game over expected
vs a top-half team
+0.44
vs a bottom-half team
−0.40
01
A +0.84 difference in expected goals over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
1.32
0.72
12
A +0.60 difference in expected goals vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up once in 100.
The games
vs a top-half teamvs a bottom-half team
| Side | Date | Game | Result | xG | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2025 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0.18 | 0.80 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | @ Strasbourg | L | 0.55 | 0.88 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs AJ Auxerre | W | 0.22 | 1.19 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Nice | L | 0.77 | 1.04 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Stade Rennais | T | 1.68 | 1.27 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Toulouse | T | 1.31 | 0.69 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Brest | T | 0.29 | 1.06 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs Lille | L | 0.60 | 0.91 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Paris FC | W | 0.68 | 0.96 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs AS Monaco | L | 1.56 | 1.25 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Metz | L | 0.85 | 1.39 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Le Havre AC | T | 0.13 | 0.92 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Lorient | T | 0.94 | 1.09 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Lyon | L | 0.88 | 0.91 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Lens | L | 0.90 | 1.07 | |
| Dec 12, 2025 | @ Angers | L | 0.43 | 1.04 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Marseille | W | 1.82 | 0.66 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsParis FC | L | 0.42 | 1.27 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsNice | L | 1.60 | 1.28 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Lorient | L | 1.03 | 0.80 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsLyon | L | 0.91 | 1.19 | |
| Feb 13, 2026 | @AS Monaco | L | 1.02 | 0.98 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsLe Havre AC | W | 0.58 | 1.19 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @Lille | L | 0.25 | 0.64 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsAngers | L | 0.63 | 1.32 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsStrasbourg | L | 1.37 | 1.13 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @Metz | T | 0.78 | 1.10 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @AJ Auxerre | T | 1.22 | 0.85 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsBrest | T | 1.14 | 1.31 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 1.24 | 0.47 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @Stade Rennais | L | 2.67 | 0.93 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsMarseille | W | 2.79 | 0.91 | |
| May 8, 2026 | @Lens | L | 1.20 | 0.76 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsToulouse | T | 0.13 | 1.04 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 86% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.