Marseille’s goals after an international break and between breaks
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Through Marseille’s game on Oct 11, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Marseille was 1.78 goals over after an international break and 0.20 goals under between breaks over its last 75 games, 7 games against 62. The plain averages are 3.57 and 1.61, a difference of 1.96.
Marseille’s +1.98 after an international break vs between breaks over expected ranks 1st of the 87 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through Oct 11, 2026.
goals a game over expected
after an international break
+1.78
between breaks
−0.20
-2024
A +1.98 difference in goals over expected after an international break vs between breaks is rare: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
3.57
1.61
0246
A +1.96 difference in goals after an international break vs between breaks is rare: shuffle which games were after an international break and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
after an international breakbetween breaks
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | @ Montpellier | W | 5 | 2.44 | |
| Oct 27, 2024 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 1.70 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ Nantes | W | 2 | 1.96 | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | vs AJ Auxerre | L | 1 | 2.15 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Lens | W | 3 | 1.60 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs AS Monaco | W | 2 | 1.90 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ Saint-Étienne | W | 2 | 2.56 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Lille | T | 1 | 1.80 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs Le Havre AC | W | 5 | 2.43 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ Stade Rennais | W | 2 | 1.92 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs Strasbourg | T | 1 | 1.99 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @ Nice | L | 0 | 1.82 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vs Lyon | W | 3 | 1.96 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | @ Angers | W | 2 | 1.97 | |
| Feb 15, 2025 | vsSaint-Étienne | W | 5 | 2.58 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @AJ Auxerre | L | 0 | 2.04 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vsNantes | W | 2 | 2.12 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsLens | L | 0 | 1.90 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 1 | 1.50 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | @ Stade de Reims | L | 1 | 1.87 | |
| Apr 6, 2025 | vs Toulouse | W | 3 | 1.86 | |
| Apr 12, 2025 | @AS Monaco | L | 0 | 1.83 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | vsMontpellier | W | 5 | 2.60 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | vs Brest | W | 4 | 2.24 | |
| May 4, 2025 | @Lille | T | 1 | 1.64 | |
| May 10, 2025 | @Le Havre AC | W | 3 | 2.37 | |
| May 17, 2025 | vsStade Rennais | W | 4 | 1.99 | |
| Aug 15, 2025 | @Stade Rennais | L | 0 | 1.67 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Paris FC | W | 5 | 1.70 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @Lyon | L | 0 | 1.43 | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs Lorient | W | 4 | 1.77 | |
| Sep 16, 2025 | @ Real Madrid | L | 1 | 1.34 | |
| Sep 22, 2025 | vsParis Saint-Germain | W | 1 | 1.39 | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | @Strasbourg | W | 2 | 1.51 | |
| Sep 30, 2025 | vs Ajax Amsterdam | W | 4 | 2.58 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Metz | W | 3 | 2.12 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsLe Havre AC | W | 6 | 1.50 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ Sporting CP | L | 1 | 1.13 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Lens | L | 1 | 1.28 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vsAngers | T | 2 | 1.76 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @AJ Auxerre | W | 1 | 1.45 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs Atalanta | L | 0 | 1.91 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsBrest | W | 3 | 1.90 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @Nice | W | 5 | 1.66 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Newcastle United | W | 2 | 1.63 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsToulouse | T | 2 | 1.73 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @Lille | L | 0 | 1.35 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | @ Union St.-Gilloise | W | 3 | 1.61 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsAS Monaco | W | 1 | 1.96 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsNantes | L | 0 | 1.94 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Angers | W | 5 | 1.37 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vs Liverpool | L | 0 | 1.59 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsLens | W | 3 | 1.46 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @ Club Brugge | L | 0 | 2.20 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Paris FC | T | 2 | 1.57 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 1.17 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsStrasbourg | T | 2 | 1.77 | |
| Feb 20, 2026 | @Brest | L | 0 | 1.76 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsLyon | W | 3 | 1.56 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @Toulouse | W | 1 | 1.52 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsAJ Auxerre | W | 1 | 1.71 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsLille | L | 1 | 1.57 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @AS Monaco | L | 1 | 1.70 | |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vsMetz | W | 3 | 2.38 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | @Lorient | L | 0 | 1.68 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsNice | T | 1 | 2.09 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @Nantes | L | 0 | 1.67 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Le Havre AC | W | 1 | 1.45 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsStade Rennais | W | 3 | 1.80 | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | vsStrasbourg | W | 4 | 1.90 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @AS Monaco | L | 0 | 1.62 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vsParis FC | L | 2 | 1.73 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @Stade Rennais | L | 0 | 2.23 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsParis Saint-Germain | L | 1 | 1.71 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Troyes | W | 2 | 1.90 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.10 in 2024-25, plus 0.16 in 2025-26, plus 0.21 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2024-25, 75% in 2025-26, 44% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 6 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither after an international break nor between breaks, and sit out.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 11.