Liverpool’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Liverpool was 0.26 goals under at home and 0.92 goals over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 5. The plain averages are 1.43 and 2.60, a difference of 1.17.
Liverpool’s −1.18 at home vs away over expected ranks 42nd of the 42 teams with 5 games on each side this season.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.26
away
+0.92
024
A −1.18 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.43
2.60
0246
A −1.17 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Newcastle United | T | 2 | 1.80 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Nottingham Forest | T | 2 | 1.72 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Ipswich Town | W | 2 | 1.99 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs Atlético Madrid | W | 2 | 1.62 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Fulham | T | 0 | 1.85 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ AFC Bournemouth | W | 1 | 1.62 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs Manchester City | L | 0 | 1.89 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ LASK Linz | W | 6 | 1.64 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Brentford | W | 2 | 1.37 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W | 4 | 1.97 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 2 | 1.34 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Arsenal | L | 0 | 1.47 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.