Lille’s shots after a Champions League game and in other league games
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Lille was 2.5 shots over after a Champions League game and 0.2 shots under in other league games over its last 75 games, 9 games against 57. The plain averages are 14.7 and 12.7, a difference of 2.0. All 3 games without Hákon Haraldsson were in other league games.
Lille’s +2.7 after a Champions League game vs in other league games over expected ranks 1st of the 28 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games.
shots a game over expected
A +2.7 difference in shots over expected after a Champions League game vs in other league games is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were after a Champions League game and it comes up 7 times in 100.
A +2.0 difference in shots after a Champions League game vs in other league games is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were after a Champions League game and it comes up 14 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | shots | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs Stade Rennais | W | 5 | 11.9 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | @ Bologna | W | 13 | 7.7 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ Montpellier | T | 13 | 13.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vs Brest | W | 10 | 12.3 | |
| Dec 11, 2024 | vs SK Sturm Graz | W | 17 | 16.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | @ Marseille | T | 10 | 8.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Nantes | T | 14 | 12.9 | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | @ AJ Auxerre | T | 12 | 11.4 | |
| Jan 17, 2025 | vs Nice | W | 11 | 13.9 | |
| Jan 21, 2025 | @ Liverpool | L | 4 | 9.1 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | @ Strasbourg | L | 15 | 11.5 | |
| Jan 29, 2025 | vs Feyenoord Rotterdam | W | 14 | 14.0 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | vs Saint-Étienne | W | 29 | 15.5 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | vs Le Havre AC | L | 13 | 14.5 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | @Stade Rennais | W | 15 | 9.3 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | vs AS Monaco | W | 9 | 11.0 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | @ Paris Saint-Germain | L | 6 | 8.1 | |
| Mar 4, 2025 | @ Borussia Dortmund | T | 9 | 9.3 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsMontpellier | W | 18 | 15.4 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | vsBorussia Dortmund | L | 10 | 11.3 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | @Nantes | L | 13 | 10.8 | |
| Mar 30, 2025 | vs Lens | W | 11 | 11.7 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | @ Lyon | L | 10 | 11.6 | |
| Apr 12, 2025 | @ Toulouse | W | 6 | 9.0 | |
| Apr 20, 2025 | vsAJ Auxerre | W | 15 | 13.4 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | @ Angers | W | 9 | 12.5 | |
| May 4, 2025 | vsMarseille | T | 5 | 10.7 | |
| May 10, 2025 | @Brest | L | 18 | 9.9 | |
| May 17, 2025 | vs Stade de Reims | W | 19 | 14.5 | |
| Aug 17, 2025 | @Brest | T | 10 | 13.5 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | vsAS Monaco | W | 18 | 15.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Lorient | W | 20 | 10.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsToulouse | W | 20 | 13.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @Lens | L | 17 | 10.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vsLyon | L | 14 | 14.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vsParis Saint-Germain | T | 9 | 11.4 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @Nantes | W | 23 | 12.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs Metz | W | 23 | 16.7 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @Nice | L | 21 | 13.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vsAngers | W | 15 | 16.2 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @Strasbourg | L | 6 | 12.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Paris FC | W | 17 | 14.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @Le Havre AC | W | 8 | 12.7 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsMarseille | W | 5 | 13.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @AJ Auxerre | W | 8 | 11.7 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsStade Rennais | L | 13 | 15.7 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 7 | 8.9 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsStrasbourg | L | 20 | 14.3 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @Lyon | L | 11 | 11.7 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | @Metz | T | 16 | 14.4 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsBrest | T | 20 | 15.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Angers | W | 14 | 13.6 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsNantes | W | 9 | 15.5 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsLorient | T | 12 | 13.4 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @Stade Rennais | W | 8 | 13.4 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @Marseille | W | 11 | 10.9 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vsLens | W | 13 | 13.6 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @Toulouse | W | 14 | 11.4 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vsNice | T | 9 | 17.2 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @Paris FC | W | 10 | 12.1 | |
| May 3, 2026 | vsLe Havre AC | T | 22 | 14.6 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @AS Monaco | W | 7 | 13.8 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsAJ Auxerre | L | 12 | 14.2 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @Angers | W | 11 | 14.7 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | vsParis Saint-Germain | T | 9 | 12.3 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @Toulouse | W | 10 | 12.2 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | vs Real Betis | L | 6 | 14.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Troyes | W | 13 | 11.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @Nice | L | 21 | 10.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsLe Havre AC | W | 5 | 13.6 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Arsenal | L | 4 | 7.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsBrest | T | 17 | 10.7 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Galatasaray | L | 15 | 12.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @AS Monaco | T | 4 | 11.4 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsLens | W | 16 | 11.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.1 in 2024-25, plus 1.4 in 2025-26, plus 1.1 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 89% in 2024-25, 88% in 2025-26, 65% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 9 games in 2024-25 and 2026-27 are neither after a Champions League game nor in other league games, and sit out.