Getafe’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Getafe was 0.00 goals over at home and 1.06 goals under away in 2026-27, 6 games against 5. The plain averages are 1.33 and 0.00, a difference of 1.33.
Getafe’s +1.07 at home vs away over expected ranks 6th of the 42 teams with 5 games on each side this season.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.00
away
−1.06
-101
A +1.07 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
1.33
0.00
0123
A +1.33 difference in goals at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | @ Alavés | L | 0 | 1.15 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 1 | 1.84 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | @ Osasuna | L | 0 | 1.45 | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | vs Celta Vigo | T | 1 | 1.03 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Deportivo | T | 1 | 1.15 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Real Betis | L | 0 | 1.01 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Málaga | W | 1 | 1.42 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Barcelona | L | 0 | 0.91 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | T | 1 | 1.45 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Athletic Club | L | 0 | 0.79 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Sevilla | W | 3 | 1.08 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.