Como’s shots vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
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Through Como’s game on Nov 1, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Como was 1.5 shots over vs a top-half team and 1.6 shots under vs a bottom-half team over its last 75 games, 30 games against 32. The plain averages are 14.5 and 13.7, a difference of 0.8. Expected was 2.4 shots lower vs a top-half team than vs a bottom-half team. Both league games after a Champions League game were vs a bottom-half team.
Como’s +3.1 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 2nd of the 110 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through Nov 1, 2026.
shots a game over expected
A +3.1 difference in shots over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +0.8 difference in shots vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | shots | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ Venezia | T | 10 | 15.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs AS Roma | W | 18 | 13.9 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | @ Internazionale | L | 7 | 11.7 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Lecce | W | 14 | 16.3 | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | @ Lazio | T | 18 | 10.2 | |
| Jan 14, 2025 | vs AC Milan | L | 12 | 14.0 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | vs Udinese | W | 11 | 15.6 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vs Atalanta | L | 15 | 12.6 | |
| Feb 1, 2025 | @ Bologna | L | 8 | 9.1 | |
| Feb 7, 2025 | vs Juventus | L | 17 | 13.1 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | @ Fiorentina | W | 8 | 12.2 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | vs Napoli | W | 8 | 12.3 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | @AS Roma | L | 10 | 12.1 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsVenezia | T | 12 | 17.1 | |
| Mar 15, 2025 | @AC Milan | L | 15 | 11.7 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | vs Empoli | T | 16 | 15.7 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | @ Monza | W | 17 | 14.6 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | vs Torino | W | 16 | 15.9 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | @Lecce | W | 10 | 14.3 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | vs Genoa | W | 14 | 14.9 | |
| May 3, 2025 | @ Parma | W | 13 | 14.4 | |
| May 10, 2025 | vs Cagliari | W | 19 | 15.1 | |
| May 18, 2025 | @ Hellas Verona | T | 11 | 13.6 | |
| May 23, 2025 | vsInternazionale | L | 18 | 13.3 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | vsLazio | W | 19 | 16.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @Bologna | L | 13 | 10.9 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | vsGenoa | T | 13 | 15.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @Fiorentina | W | 19 | 13.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Cremonese | T | 14 | 18.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Atalanta | T | 12 | 12.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vsJuventus | W | 12 | 14.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Parma | T | 6 | 14.8 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vsHellas Verona | W | 15 | 16.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Napoli | T | 13 | 11.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsCagliari | T | 10 | 16.1 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @Torino | W | 15 | 14.1 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Sassuolo | W | 18 | 17.1 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @Internazionale | L | 15 | 9.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | @AS Roma | L | 13 | 10.5 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @Lecce | W | 12 | 13.1 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsUdinese | W | 15 | 16.2 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @ Pisa | W | 15 | 14.6 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsBologna | T | 12 | 13.6 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vsAC Milan | L | 18 | 14.5 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @Lazio | W | 11 | 13.8 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsTorino | W | 17 | 16.7 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsAtalanta | T | 28 | 14.1 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsFiorentina | L | 16 | 16.5 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @AC Milan | T | 10 | 12.3 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Juventus | W | 11 | 11.8 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsLecce | W | 12 | 15.8 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @Cagliari | W | 8 | 13.6 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsAS Roma | W | 22 | 12.7 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsPisa | W | 14 | 17.2 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | @Udinese | T | 12 | 13.7 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsInternazionale | L | 24 | 12.1 | |
| Apr 17, 2026 | @Sassuolo | L | 12 | 14.8 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @Genoa | W | 8 | 13.5 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsNapoli | T | 16 | 13.5 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Hellas Verona | W | 11 | 14.0 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsParma | W | 23 | 16.6 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Cremonese | W | 15 | 15.6 | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | @Udinese | T | 20 | 17.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @Napoli | W | 21 | 16.6 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @Genoa | W | 20 | 16.7 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 14 | 15.6 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | vsParma | W | 28 | 19.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Frosinone | L | 27 | 18.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsAS Roma | T | 19 | 15.2 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Feyenoord Rotterdam | L | 11 | 17.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @Fiorentina | W | 16 | 15.1 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Manchester United | W | 11 | 13.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSassuolo | W | 14 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @Torino | W | 18 | 17.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsVenezia | W | 19 | 18.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.1 in 2024-25, plus 1.4 in 2025-26, plus 1.1 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 89% in 2024-25, 88% in 2025-26, 65% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 13 games in 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither vs a top-half team nor vs a bottom-half team, and sit out.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Nov 1.