Como’s shots vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Como was 2.8 shots over vs a top-half team and 2.1 shots under vs a bottom-half team in 2025-26, 15 games against 18. The plain averages are 15.7 and 13.1, a difference of 2.6.
Como’s +4.8 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 1st of the 96 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
shots a game over expected
vs a top-half team
+2.8
vs a bottom-half team
−2.1
010
A +4.8 difference in shots over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
15.7
13.1
1020
A +2.6 difference in shots vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is about what you’d expect.
The games
vs a top-half teamvs a bottom-half team
| Side | Date | Game | Result | shots | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2025 | vs Lazio | W | 19 | 16.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Bologna | L | 13 | 10.9 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | vs Genoa | T | 13 | 15.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ Fiorentina | W | 19 | 13.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Cremonese | T | 14 | 18.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Atalanta | T | 12 | 12.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs Juventus | W | 12 | 14.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Parma | T | 6 | 14.8 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs Hellas Verona | W | 15 | 16.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Napoli | T | 13 | 11.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Cagliari | T | 10 | 16.1 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ Torino | W | 15 | 14.1 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Sassuolo | W | 18 | 17.1 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Internazionale | L | 15 | 9.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | @ AS Roma | L | 13 | 10.5 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ Lecce | W | 12 | 13.1 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Udinese | W | 15 | 16.2 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @ Pisa | W | 15 | 14.6 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsBologna | T | 12 | 13.6 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vs AC Milan | L | 18 | 14.5 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @Lazio | W | 11 | 13.8 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsTorino | W | 17 | 16.7 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsAtalanta | T | 28 | 14.1 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vsFiorentina | L | 16 | 16.5 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @AC Milan | T | 10 | 12.3 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Juventus | W | 11 | 11.8 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsLecce | W | 12 | 15.8 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @Cagliari | W | 8 | 13.6 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsAS Roma | W | 22 | 12.7 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsPisa | W | 14 | 17.2 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | @Udinese | T | 12 | 13.7 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsInternazionale | L | 24 | 12.1 | |
| Apr 17, 2026 | @Sassuolo | L | 12 | 14.8 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @Genoa | W | 8 | 13.5 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsNapoli | T | 16 | 13.5 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Hellas Verona | W | 11 | 14.0 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsParma | W | 23 | 16.6 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Cremonese | W | 15 | 15.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.