Chelsea’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Chelsea was 0.67 goals over at home and 0.18 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 2.60 and 1.50, a difference of 1.10. All 3 games vs bottom-half teams were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.67
away
−0.18
-202
A +0.85 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
2.60
1.50
024
A +1.10 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | @ Fulham | W | 3 | 1.60 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 4 | 1.41 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Arsenal | L | 1 | 1.47 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Hull City | T | 2 | 1.94 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Brentford | L | 0 | 1.94 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs AFC Bournemouth | W | 5 | 1.70 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Everton | W | 2 | 1.70 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 | 2.21 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Manchester United | W | 2 | 2.37 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.