Burnley’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Burnley was 0.29 goals under at home and 0.08 goals over away in 2025-26, 19 games against 19. The plain averages are 0.95 and 1.05, a difference of 0.11. Expected was 0.26 goals higher at home than away. All 3 games after an international break were at home.
Burnley’s −0.37 at home vs away over expected ranks 90th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.29
away
+0.08
-1012
A −0.37 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.95
1.05
0123
A −0.11 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | @ Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 | 1.13 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Sunderland | W | 2 | 1.11 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Manchester United | L | 2 | 0.93 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs Liverpool | L | 0 | 1.24 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Nottingham Forest | T | 1 | 1.23 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Manchester City | L | 1 | 0.73 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ Aston Villa | L | 1 | 0.93 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Leeds United | W | 2 | 1.29 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ Wolverhampton Wanderers | W | 3 | 1.22 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.72 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ West Ham United | L | 2 | 1.22 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Chelsea | L | 0 | 1.37 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Brentford | L | 1 | 0.99 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Crystal Palace | L | 0 | 1.26 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Newcastle United | L | 1 | 1.06 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Fulham | L | 2 | 1.18 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ AFC Bournemouth | T | 1 | 1.04 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Everton | T | 0 | 1.25 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vsNewcastle United | L | 1 | 1.32 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 0.91 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsManchester United | T | 2 | 1.19 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @Liverpool | T | 1 | 0.95 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsTottenham Hotspur | T | 2 | 1.31 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @Sunderland | L | 0 | 0.94 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsWest Ham United | L | 0 | 1.56 | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | @Crystal Palace | W | 3 | 0.87 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @Chelsea | T | 1 | 1.07 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsBrentford | L | 3 | 1.17 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @Everton | L | 0 | 0.99 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsAFC Bournemouth | T | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @Fulham | L | 1 | 0.96 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsBrighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 1.17 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @Nottingham Forest | L | 1 | 0.97 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vsManchester City | L | 0 | 1.02 | |
| May 1, 2026 | @Leeds United | L | 1 | 1.07 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vsAston Villa | T | 2 | 1.15 | |
| May 18, 2026 | @Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.46 | |
| May 24, 2026 | vsWolverhampton Wanderers | T | 1 | 1.56 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.