Barcelona’s yellow cards after a Champions League game and in other league games
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Barcelona was 0.5 yellow cards over after a Champions League game and 0.4 yellow cards under in other league games over its last 75 games, 18 games against 38. The plain averages are 2.2 and 1.3, a difference of 0.9.
Barcelona’s +0.9 after a Champions League game vs in other league games over expected ranks 3rd of the 28 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games.
yellow cards a game over expected
after a Champions League game
+0.5
in other league games
−0.4
-202
A +0.9 difference in yellow cards over expected after a Champions League game vs in other league games is unusual: shuffle which games were after a Champions League game and it comes up 4 times in 100.
plain
2.2
1.3
024
A +0.9 difference in yellow cards after a Champions League game vs in other league games is unusual: shuffle which games were after a Champions League game and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
after a Champions League gamein other league games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | yellow cards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2025 | @ Leganés | W | 1 | 1.5 | |
| Apr 15, 2025 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | vs Celta Vigo | W | 2 | 1.6 | |
| Apr 22, 2025 | vs Mallorca | W | 0 | 1.4 | |
| Apr 30, 2025 | vs Internazionale | T | 1 | 1.3 | |
| May 3, 2025 | @ Real Valladolid | W | 2 | 1.7 | |
| May 6, 2025 | @Internazionale | L | 2 | 1.4 | |
| May 11, 2025 | vs Real Madrid | W | 3 | 1.5 | |
| May 15, 2025 | @ Espanyol | W | 1 | 1.4 | |
| May 18, 2025 | vs Villarreal | L | 2 | 1.8 | |
| May 25, 2025 | @ Athletic Club | W | 0 | 1.7 | |
| Aug 16, 2025 | @Mallorca | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @ Levante | W | 1 | 1.9 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @ Rayo Vallecano | T | 1 | 1.9 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs Valencia | W | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | @ Newcastle United | W | 4 | 2.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs Getafe | W | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | @ Real Oviedo | W | 0 | 1.4 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs Real Sociedad | W | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 1, 2025 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | 4 | 1.5 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ Sevilla | L | 5 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Girona | W | 2 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vs Olympiacos | W | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @Real Madrid | L | 4 | 1.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Elche | W | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | @ Club Brugge | T | 3 | 1.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @Celta Vigo | W | 4 | 1.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsAthletic Club | W | 0 | 1.6 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @ Chelsea | L | 1 | 2.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Alavés | W | 2 | 1.6 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Atlético Madrid | W | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Real Betis | W | 2 | 2.0 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W | 2 | 1.6 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Osasuna | W | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @Villarreal | W | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @Espanyol | W | 0 | 2.0 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Real Sociedad | L | 4 | 1.9 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ Slavia Prague | W | 1 | 2.4 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsReal Oviedo | W | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vs F.C. København | W | 1 | 1.9 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Elche | W | 1 | 1.9 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsMallorca | W | 0 | 1.6 | |
| Feb 16, 2026 | @Girona | L | 3 | 1.8 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsLevante | W | 2 | 1.7 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsVillarreal | W | 2 | 1.6 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @Athletic Club | W | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @Newcastle United | T | 1 | 2.1 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsSevilla | W | 0 | 1.7 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vsNewcastle United | W | 1 | 2.0 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsRayo Vallecano | W | 3 | 1.7 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @Atlético Madrid | W | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Apr 8, 2026 | vsAtlético Madrid | L | 2 | 1.6 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsEspanyol | W | 3 | 1.8 | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | @Atlético Madrid | W | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vsCelta Vigo | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @Getafe | W | 2 | 1.9 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @Osasuna | W | 2 | 1.9 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vsReal Madrid | W | 2 | 1.7 | |
| May 13, 2026 | @Alavés | L | 2 | 1.8 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsReal Betis | W | 1 | 1.8 | |
| May 23, 2026 | @Valencia | L | 2 | 1.9 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @Elche | W | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | vsAthletic Club | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vsRayo Vallecano | W | 0 | 1.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @Valencia | W | 3 | 1.7 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs Feyenoord Rotterdam | W | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @Levante | W | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Sep 16, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 3 | 1.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Sevilla | W | 0 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsGetafe | W | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Galatasaray | W | 0 | 2.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Real Betis | W | 2 | 1.9 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsReal Madrid | L | 3 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsAlavés | W | 2 | 1.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024-25, minus 0.1 in 2025-26, minus 0.1 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 63% in 2024-25, 56% in 2025-26, 25% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 19 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither after a Champions League game nor in other league games, and sit out.