Atlético Madrid’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Atlético Madrid was 0.33 goals over at home and 0.02 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 8. The plain averages are 2.17 and 1.63, a difference of 0.54.
Atlético Madrid’s +0.31 at home vs away over expected ranks 21st of the 42 teams with 5 games on each side this season.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.33
away
+0.02
-101
A +0.31 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
2.17
1.63
01234
A +0.54 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | vs Málaga | W | 2 | 2.04 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Villarreal | T | 2 | 1.90 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Sevilla | W | 3 | 1.58 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Athletic Club | L | 0 | 1.50 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | @ Liverpool | L | 1 | 1.31 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Real Sociedad | W | 3 | 1.74 | |
| Sep 16, 2026 | vs Osasuna | W | 4 | 2.00 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | W | 2 | 1.43 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Alavés | W | 2 | 1.67 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Manchester United | W | 2 | 1.81 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Espanyol | W | 1 | 1.50 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ VfB Stuttgart | T | 1 | 1.88 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Deportivo | W | 1 | 1.86 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Levante | W | 2 | 1.70 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026-27 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.