Atlético Madrid’s expected goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Atlético Madrid was 0.32 expected goals over at home and 0.28 expected goals under away in 2025-26, 27 games against 27. The plain averages are 1.87 and 0.96, a difference of 0.91.
Atlético Madrid’s +0.61 at home vs away over expected ranks 3rd of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
expected goals a game over expected
at home
+0.32
away
−0.28
012
A +0.61 difference in expected goals over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
1.87
0.96
123
A +0.91 difference in expected goals at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | xG | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2025 | @ Espanyol | L | 1.36 | 1.45 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Elche | T | 1.11 | 1.73 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Alavés | T | 1.16 | 1.24 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Villarreal | W | 0.54 | 1.53 | |
| Sep 17, 2025 | @ Liverpool | L | 0.66 | 0.89 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ Mallorca | T | 0.94 | 1.46 | |
| Sep 24, 2025 | vs Rayo Vallecano | W | 3.60 | 1.44 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Real Madrid | W | 1.09 | 1.48 | |
| Sep 30, 2025 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W | 3.29 | 1.71 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ Celta Vigo | T | 0.53 | 1.26 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Osasuna | W | 2.14 | 1.47 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | @ Arsenal | L | 0.87 | 0.71 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | @ Real Betis | W | 0.52 | 1.26 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Sevilla | W | 1.74 | 1.47 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs Union St.-Gilloise | W | 1.69 | 1.70 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Levante | W | 2.99 | 1.73 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Getafe | W | 1.03 | 1.01 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs Internazionale | W | 1.32 | 1.29 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Real Oviedo | W | 1.92 | 1.72 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @ Barcelona | L | 0.78 | 1.20 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Athletic Club | L | 0.41 | 1.02 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | @ PSV Eindhoven | W | 1.50 | 1.37 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Valencia | W | 1.44 | 1.47 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Girona | W | 0.93 | 1.45 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Real Sociedad | T | 0.84 | 1.43 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsAlavés | W | 1.77 | 1.50 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | @ Galatasaray | T | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsMallorca | W | 1.48 | 1.72 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vs Bodo/Glimt | L | 2.04 | 2.18 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Levante | T | 0.66 | 1.54 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsReal Betis | L | 0.97 | 1.53 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @Rayo Vallecano | L | 1.15 | 1.25 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | @ Club Brugge | T | 2.02 | 1.59 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsEspanyol | W | 2.87 | 1.67 | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | vsClub Brugge | W | 1.84 | 1.92 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Real Oviedo | W | 0.91 | 1.47 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsReal Sociedad | W | 2.94 | 1.63 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | W | 2.04 | 1.33 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsGetafe | W | 1.63 | 1.27 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | @Tottenham Hotspur | L | 1.15 | 1.08 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @Real Madrid | L | 1.20 | 1.19 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vsBarcelona | L | 0.93 | 1.48 | |
| Apr 8, 2026 | @Barcelona | W | 0.54 | 1.21 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @Sevilla | L | 0.84 | 1.21 | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vsBarcelona | L | 1.62 | 1.46 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | @Elche | L | 0.69 | 1.46 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vsAthletic Club | W | 1.11 | 1.28 | |
| Apr 29, 2026 | vsArsenal | T | 1.57 | 0.98 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @Valencia | W | 1.65 | 1.18 | |
| May 5, 2026 | @Arsenal | L | 0.88 | 0.71 | |
| May 9, 2026 | vsCelta Vigo | L | 2.38 | 1.48 | |
| May 12, 2026 | @Osasuna | W | 0.80 | 1.24 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsGirona | W | 2.51 | 1.67 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Villarreal | L | 0.92 | 1.23 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 86% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.