Alavés’ goals vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Alavés was 0.43 goals over vs a top-half team and 0.51 goals under vs a bottom-half team in 2025-26, 17 games against 16. The plain averages are 1.59 and 0.75, a difference of 0.84. All 3 games after an international break were vs a bottom-half team.
Alavés’ +0.95 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 1st of the 96 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
A +0.95 difference in goals over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up once in 100.
A +0.84 difference in goals vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | vs Levante | W | 2 | 1.51 | |
| Aug 22, 2025 | @ Real Betis | L | 0 | 1.08 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Atlético Madrid | T | 1 | 1.21 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Athletic Club | W | 1 | 1.21 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Sevilla | L | 1 | 1.53 | |
| Sep 24, 2025 | @ Getafe | T | 1 | 0.80 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Mallorca | L | 0 | 1.25 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs Elche | W | 3 | 1.39 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | vs Valencia | T | 0 | 1.47 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ Rayo Vallecano | L | 0 | 0.97 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Espanyol | W | 2 | 1.38 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Girona | L | 0 | 1.20 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Celta Vigo | L | 0 | 1.33 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Barcelona | L | 1 | 0.89 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Real Sociedad | W | 1 | 1.57 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Real Madrid | L | 1 | 1.05 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Osasuna | L | 0 | 1.10 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vs Real Oviedo | T | 1 | 1.51 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Villarreal | L | 1 | 1.12 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.99 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsReal Betis | W | 2 | 1.25 | |
| Jan 30, 2026 | @Espanyol | W | 2 | 1.12 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsGetafe | L | 0 | 1.10 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Sevilla | T | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Feb 23, 2026 | vsGirona | T | 2 | 1.38 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | @Levante | L | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @Valencia | L | 2 | 1.13 | |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vsVillarreal | T | 1 | 1.38 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @Celta Vigo | W | 4 | 0.90 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vsOsasuna | T | 2 | 1.28 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @Real Sociedad | T | 3 | 1.22 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | @Real Madrid | L | 1 | 0.79 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vsMallorca | W | 2 | 1.43 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vsAthletic Club | L | 2 | 1.43 | |
| May 9, 2026 | @Elche | T | 1 | 1.21 | |
| May 13, 2026 | vsBarcelona | W | 1 | 1.14 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Real Oviedo | W | 1 | 1.25 | |
| May 23, 2026 | vsRayo Vallecano | L | 1 | 1.19 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.