AFC Bournemouth’s expected goals conceded at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, AFC Bournemouth was 0.36 expected goals under at home and 0.40 expected goals over away in 2025-26, 19 games against 19. The plain averages are 0.92 and 1.92, a difference of 1.00.
AFC Bournemouth’s −0.76 at home vs away over expected ranks 101st of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
expected goals conceded a game over expected
at home
−0.36
away
+0.40
-101
A −0.76 difference in expected goals conceded over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
0.92
1.92
123
A −1.00 difference in expected goals conceded at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | xG against | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2025 | @ Liverpool | L | 2.32 | 1.80 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Wolverhampton Wanderers | W | 0.35 | 0.89 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Tottenham Hotspur | W | 0.29 | 1.41 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 0.45 | 1.35 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs Newcastle United | T | 0.33 | 1.38 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Leeds United | T | 1.94 | 1.54 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Fulham | W | 1.07 | 1.22 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Crystal Palace | T | 3.11 | 1.52 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs Nottingham Forest | W | 0.56 | 1.11 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ Manchester City | L | 1.51 | 1.95 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ Aston Villa | L | 2.02 | 1.56 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs West Ham United | T | 0.72 | 1.17 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Sunderland | L | 0.88 | 1.27 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Everton | L | 2.05 | 1.16 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Chelsea | T | 0.84 | 1.43 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | @ Manchester United | T | 3.27 | 1.70 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Burnley | T | 0.26 | 0.90 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ Brentford | L | 1.99 | 1.45 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | @Chelsea | T | 1.71 | 1.68 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Arsenal | L | 1.20 | 1.64 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vsTottenham Hotspur | W | 1.42 | 1.07 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @Brighton & Hove Albion | T | 1.51 | 1.59 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsLiverpool | W | 1.09 | 1.56 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Wolverhampton Wanderers | W | 1.45 | 1.13 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsAston Villa | T | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Feb 10, 2026 | @Everton | W | 2.08 | 1.45 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | @West Ham United | T | 3.33 | 1.34 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsSunderland | T | 0.91 | 0.98 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vsBrentford | T | 0.41 | 1.24 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @Burnley | T | 1.40 | 1.13 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vsManchester United | T | 0.93 | 1.52 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @Arsenal | W | 2.32 | 1.89 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | @Newcastle United | W | 1.60 | 1.62 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vsLeeds United | T | 1.18 | 1.29 | |
| May 3, 2026 | vsCrystal Palace | W | 1.14 | 1.32 | |
| May 9, 2026 | @Fulham | W | 1.73 | 1.48 | |
| May 19, 2026 | vsManchester City | T | 1.84 | 1.65 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Nottingham Forest | T | 1.95 | 1.33 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 86% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.