Umar Sadiq’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Umar Sadiq was 0.66 goals under at home and 0.38 goals over away in 2026-27, 2 games against 2. The plain averages are 0.00 and 1.00, a difference of 1.00.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.66
away
+0.38
-0.500.5
A −1.04 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.00
1.00
00.51
A −1.00 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs Celta Vigo | T | 0 | 0.74 | |
| Aug 25, 2026 | vs Real Betis | L | 0 | 0.59 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ Deportivo | L | 1 | 0.48 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Elche | W | 1 | 0.76 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.