Stole Dimitrievski’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Stole Dimitrievski was 0.43 goals under at home and 0.28 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 5. The plain averages are -0.43 and 0.28, a difference of 0.71.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
−0.43
away
+0.28
-10
A −0.71 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 13 times in 100.
plain
-0.43
0.28
-10
A −0.71 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 13 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs Celta Vigo | T | 0.35 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 25, 2026 | vs Real Betis | L | -0.20 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ Deportivo | L | -0.21 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Barcelona | L | -1.03 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Sevilla | L | -0.04 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 15, 2026 | @ Alavés | W | 0.55 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Real Sociedad | L | -0.44 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Racing Santander | T | 0.64 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Athletic Club | T | 0.25 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Villarreal | L | -1.49 | 0.00 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Elche | W | 0.47 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.