Serhou Guirassy’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Serhou Guirassy was 0.16 goals over at home and 0.31 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.60 and 0.67, a difference of 0.07. Expected was 0.08 goals higher at home than away.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.16
away
+0.31
01
A −0.14 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.60
0.67
00.511.52
A −0.07 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Hamburg SV | W | 1 | 0.74 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ TSG Hoffenheim | W | 1 | 0.51 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W | 2 | 0.34 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs SC Paderborn 07 | W | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ VfB Stuttgart | W | 0 | 0.34 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Werder Bremen | T | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Bodo/Glimt | L | 0 | 0.44 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ 1. FC Union Berlin | T | 0 | 0.37 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Sabah FK | W | 2 | 0.44 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W | 0 | 0.60 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Bayern Munich | T | 1 | 0.05 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 58%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.