Samuel Mbangula’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Samuel Mbangula was 0.46 goals under at home and 0.75 goals over away in 2026-27, 2 games against 3. The plain averages are 0.00 and 1.00, a difference of 1.00. Both games vs top-half teams were away.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.46
away
+0.75
012
A −1.22 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.00
1.00
0123
A −1.00 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Sassuolo | T | 0 | 0.66 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Napoli | L | 0 | 0.32 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Cagliari | W | 0 | 0.28 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ AC Milan | W | 3 | 0.13 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Monza | W | 0 | 0.27 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 43%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.