Riccardo Calafiori’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defenders, Riccardo Calafiori was 0.21 goals over at home and 0.05 goals under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.25 and 0.00, a difference of 0.25.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.21
away
−0.05
00.5
A +0.26 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 14 times in 100.
plain
0.25
0.00
00.51
A +0.25 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | vs Coventry City | W | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | W | 0 | 0.07 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Chelsea | W | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Sunderland | W | 0 | 0.06 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Leeds United | W | 1 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Nottingham Forest | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Bayern Munich | T | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Everton | W | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Liverpool | W | 0 | 0.02 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defenders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.01 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defenders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defenders’ goals in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.